JPRC

Intensified Support for Juvenile Offenders on Probation: Evidence From Germany (RDD Design in Crime and Justice Project Study Summary #2)

Brief

Intensified Support for Juvenile Offenders on Probation: Evidence From Germany (RDD Design in Crime and Justice Project Study Summary #2)

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WestEd’s Jonathan Nakamoto and Trent Baskerville summarized this study conducted by researchers Christoph Engel, Sebastian J. Goerg, and Christian Traxler to investigate the impact of an intensive probation program on youth recidivism.

Using a prospective Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), the study assigned half of the eligible youth above a cutoff score to receive the intensive probation program, while the other half received regular probation. The research team collected individual-level conviction data from Germany’s Federal Crime Register and used a risk scorecard to evaluate each youth’s criminal history and risks/needs.

The findings revealed that recidivism was approximately 10 percentage points lower for youth eligible for the intensive probation program after 6 months, with this difference increasing to around 30 percentage points between 1 and 3 years later. These reductions in recidivism were statistically significant for less severe offenders close to the assignment variable cutoff. Overall, the study highlights how intensified personal support and increased monitoring by probation officers can contribute to positive outcomes in reducing recidivism among juvenile offenders.

Under the Cover of Darkness: How Ambient Light Influences Criminal Activity (RDD in Crime and Justice Project Study Summary #3)

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WestEd’s Jonathan Nakamoto and Trent Baskerville summarized this study conducted by researchers Jennifer L. Doleac and Nicholas J. Sanders to investigate the impact of increased daylight during evening hours due to Daylight Savings Time (DST) on criminal activity.

Using a retrospective Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) study, the researchers used crime and population data from 558 jurisdictions in the United States between 2005 and 2008. They found that DST led to reductions in robbery and rape rates, with the most significant decreases occurring in the hour following sunset.

The study revealed statistically significant reductions of 7 percent for robbery and 11 percent for rape in daily crime rates after DST, while there were no significant changes for aggravated assault and murder. However, analysis of crime rates specifically within the hour after sunset revealed larger reductions of 27 percent for robbery and 38 percent for rape. Importantly, the findings indicated that criminal activity was not shifted to other times of the day. The authors estimated that these reductions could result in annual savings of nearly $60 million due to avoided robberies and approximately $250 million due to avoided rapes as a result of DST implementation.

Examining Prison Effects on Recidivism: A Regression Discontinuity Approach (RDD in Crime and Justice Project Study Summary #1)

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This study summary prepared by WestEd’s Jonathan Nakamoto and Trent Baskerville explores the impact of prison sentences on recidivism rates. The study, conducted by Ojmarrh Mitchell, Joshua C. Cochran, Daniel P. Mears, and William D. Bales, focuses on Florida’s point system for sentencing and uses a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to evaluate the effects of prison versus nonprison sanctions on subsequent reconviction rates.

The authors analyzed data from the Florida Department of Corrections and found that there was no statistically significant difference in reconviction rates between cases just above and cases just below the cutoff score for imprisonment. This suggests that prison sentences did not lead to a reduction in recidivism over a 3-year period for mostly nonviolent property and drug offenders near the cutoff score. The study concludes that alternative sanctions may be more effective for these types of offenders considering he high costs associated with imprisonment.

Regression Discontinuity Design: A Method to Rigorously Evaluate Interventions to Reduce Crime and Improve the Justice System

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To address challenges within traditional research designs for crime reduction and justice system improvement, this brief provides information about the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) method.

The brief shares a comprehensive overview of the RDD method that emphasizes its significance and efficacy in evaluating interventions in real-world scenarios. It advocates for increased RDD adoption, highlighting ethical advantages and its potential for accurate and applicable research outcomes.

Researchers, policymakers, and practitioners seeking ethical, practical, and data-driven approaches to intervention evaluation will also find practical guidance for employing RDD.

Should Schools Be Conducting Lockdown Drills?

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Although the COVID-19 pandemic closed schools and directed attention to other matters, one issue which had raised concern prior to the pandemic — the role of lockdown drills in schools — remains to be addressed as education leaders prepare for the return of students and adults to gathering daily in large groups in schools.

By one estimate, 95 percent of U.S. schools perform lockdown drills as part of their emergency response plans each year. Their widespread use has been one response to calls for improved safety and security in schools, as the drills aim to help prevent future attacks or, in the event that one occurs, to minimize the loss of life.

Nonetheless, calls to end the use of lockdown drills have been raised, often based on concerns about their effects on the safety and psychological well-being of students and adults who participate.

Despite the widespread use of lockdown drills, research on the impact of such practices is sparse. Nonetheless, the question of whether to end the practice of lockdown drills should be decided based on evidence. Accordingly, this research brief summarizes arguments for and against lockdown drills, as well as available research and best practices, to provide better context to address questions about the use of such drills in schools.

States’ School Safety Centers: A Brief Look Into History, Characteristics, and Activities

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State school safety centers (SSSCs) aim to provide a wide range of services to enhance school security. Still, more information is needed to understand how the centers should operate and what factors determine their success.

In 2021, the WestEd Justice & Prevention Research Center received funding from the U.S. National Institute of Justice to conduct one of the first empirical studies of SSSCs. This brief is based on an online survey that asked key informants in each state to assess the history, characteristics, and activities of state school safety centers (SSSCs). Key findings include:

  • Over 65% of respondents reported that their state has or has had an SSSC, and over 96% reported that the SSSC was still operational
  • A majority (62%) of SSSCs have been established in the last decade
  • Over 65% of respondents reported that their SSSC was started in response to state legislation, with 28% attributing the creation to a response to incidents of violence in schools
  • Over 70% of currently operational SSSCs were reported to be situated within larger state agencies
  • A large majority of respondents indicated that their SSSC was funded by state and/or federal funds
  • Over 75% of respondents reported that their SSSC had 10 or fewer staff