We are partnering with the Texas School Safety Center at Texas State University on a new NIJ-funded grant. The grant supports a 3-year study to examine early-stage implementation of a recent Texas mandate requiring schools to disseminate safe firearms storage information to students’ families each year. The research team will survey a statewide representative sample of school administrators and parents to assess perceptions, attitudes, and behaviors related to the campaign, including how the findings vary across demographic and community factors. The study will also include a process of co-interpretation with students and parents to inform future implementation strategies in the state.
Violence Prevention
Intensified Support for Juvenile Offenders on Probation: Evidence From Germany (RDD Design in Crime and Justice Project Study Summary #2)
WestEd’s Jonathan Nakamoto and Trent Baskerville summarized this study conducted by researchers Christoph Engel, Sebastian J. Goerg, and Christian Traxler to investigate the impact of an intensive probation program on youth recidivism.
Using a prospective Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), the study assigned half of the eligible youth above a cutoff score to receive the intensive probation program, while the other half received regular probation. The research team collected individual-level conviction data from Germany’s Federal Crime Register and used a risk scorecard to evaluate each youth’s criminal history and risks/needs.
The findings revealed that recidivism was approximately 10 percentage points lower for youth eligible for the intensive probation program after 6 months, with this difference increasing to around 30 percentage points between 1 and 3 years later. These reductions in recidivism were statistically significant for less severe offenders close to the assignment variable cutoff. Overall, the study highlights how intensified personal support and increased monitoring by probation officers can contribute to positive outcomes in reducing recidivism among juvenile offenders.
Under the Cover of Darkness: How Ambient Light Influences Criminal Activity (RDD in Crime and Justice Project Study Summary #3)
WestEd’s Jonathan Nakamoto and Trent Baskerville summarized this study conducted by researchers Jennifer L. Doleac and Nicholas J. Sanders to investigate the impact of increased daylight during evening hours due to Daylight Savings Time (DST) on criminal activity.
Using a retrospective Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) study, the researchers used crime and population data from 558 jurisdictions in the United States between 2005 and 2008. They found that DST led to reductions in robbery and rape rates, with the most significant decreases occurring in the hour following sunset.
The study revealed statistically significant reductions of 7 percent for robbery and 11 percent for rape in daily crime rates after DST, while there were no significant changes for aggravated assault and murder. However, analysis of crime rates specifically within the hour after sunset revealed larger reductions of 27 percent for robbery and 38 percent for rape. Importantly, the findings indicated that criminal activity was not shifted to other times of the day. The authors estimated that these reductions could result in annual savings of nearly $60 million due to avoided robberies and approximately $250 million due to avoided rapes as a result of DST implementation.
Examining Prison Effects on Recidivism: A Regression Discontinuity Approach (RDD in Crime and Justice Project Study Summary #1)
This study summary prepared by Jonathan Nakamoto and Trent Baskerville explores the impact of prison sentences on recidivism rates. The study, conducted by Ojmarrh Mitchell, Joshua C. Cochran, Daniel P. Mears, and William D. Bales, focuses on Florida’s point system for sentencing and uses a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to evaluate the effects of prison versus nonprison sanctions on subsequent reconviction rates.
The authors analyzed data from the Florida Department of Corrections and found that there was no statistically significant difference in reconviction rates between cases just above and cases just below the cutoff score for imprisonment. This suggests that prison sentences did not lead to a reduction in recidivism over a 3-year period for mostly nonviolent property and drug offenders near the cutoff score. The study concludes that alternative sanctions may be more effective for these types of offenders considering he high costs associated with imprisonment.
Push and Pull Factors for Female Involvement in Gangs and Collateral Involvement in Sex Trafficking: Systematic Review of Research
Until recently, research on the roles of females in gangs has been minimal because violence and gang membership have historically been thought to be male-dominated phenomena. This paper addresses the knowledge gap by focusing specifically on females and the unique factors contributing to their gang involvement.
As part of a project by the JPRC in partnership with the American Institutes for Research (AIR), the paper presents a systematic review of research on factors that “push” or “pull” females toward gang involvement. The factors identified by the research include peer and family environment, victimization, neighborhood and school influences, and sex trafficking involvement.
The paper helps school staff and administrators consider prevention strategies to dissuade all students from future gang involvement. Given the overlap between various forms of prior sexual abuse and female gang involvement, close coordination between program developers, implementation staff, and community providers who support victims of sexual crimes may be important to best support victims and deter them from future gang involvement.
Additionally, community prevention strategies should consider a strong collaboration with schools to identify and intervene with current gang members and prevent younger siblings from future involvement. The findings also suggest a need for further research on gender-specific interventions to prevent female gang involvement.
What is the Regression Discontinuity Design and How Can it be Used to Evaluate Crime and Justice Interventions?
This short article provides information about the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), to promote awareness of the strengths of the evaluation method to the justice community. It provides a rationale for use of RDD, describes the methodology underlying the design, and highlights a Florida RDD study. It concludes with a call for more RDDs when appropriate to build our knowledge about crime and justice.